Quarterly Market Report: 1st Qtr 2010
January, Art market: Art shark Asher Edelman: What is he? An opportunistic void filler, ruthless provocateur, omniscient genius, reckless buccaneer, …, or a brilliant businessman hacking a path through the dismal swamp of the art market? Read an excellent article by Kelly Crow of the Wall Street Journal’s Arts & Entertainment section.
Quarterly Market Report: 4th Qtr 2009
December, Art Market: Presently the middle to upper range of the art auction market is being dominated by collectors rather than dealers. Dealers have been living off of their inventory for the past 12 months; more buyers have been retail. Uncertainty in the marketplace is the cause for this short term market change. Certainty is unlikely to return until pending major legislation (Health Care, Cap & Trade, new taxes, extension/contraction of inheritance taxes, etc.) has been resolved. The discretionary economies (art being one of many) will probably not improve until business becomes accustomed to the weight of government interference. If pending legislation is approved, there will likely be a long negative lag period before the business psyche accepts new terms. Marginally surviving art dealers, ones nearing retirement, and ones disgusted with government meddling will likely throw in their towels.
October, Antiques Trade: I am pleased to report that the antiques and collectibles market is improving in the Mid Atlantic region. Apparently young urban and suburban professionals are attending antiques shows and they are buying. It seems the chief factor that is propelling them is the Green Movement. After all, antiques are recycled decorative arts, right? Why contribute to deforestation when there’s perfectly good brown furniture available in the secondary market? Look how long it took: 5000 years.
Quarterly Market Report: 3rd Qtr 2009
25 AUG 09 // Art Market Report: After five consecutive quarters of contraction, the art market finally shows signs of life after near death experience. RE: ArtPrice.
1 AUG 09 // General Impression of Retail Market In Northern Virginia.
Yesterday I spent the day at Tyson’s Corner in one of the two large indoor shopping malls. The parking garages were full of new American and imported cars of every stripe, but mostly by manufacturers of the better sort. Brilliant petunias streamed downward ten feet from light posts outside and from flower boxes attached to the garages’ multistory guard rails. There was a lot of foot traffic. Macy’s was busy, Banana Republic was a madhouse, and Nordstrom’s shoes department was swamped with buyer’s toting bags from other Nordstrom’s departments and from other high-end shops. I spotted a pair of Allen Edmund’s black dress shoes that I happen to own a pair of; Nordstrom’s pair was $650, about $375 more than what I had paid for mine. Swarms of people were everywhere speaking every conceivable language, wearing clothes from all the inhabited continents, many from the Middle East. Washington, D.C., with all of its embassies, is nearly in walking distance of Tyson’s; perhaps that is why there was such a wide diversity of peoples. Anyway, the short of it is this: there’s nothing wrong with the retail economy in Northern Virginia, based on what I saw Saturday. So if you’re on a dead horse, I suggest you dismount and hitch a ride to where live horses graze in back yards.
4 JUL 09 // Three major factors are influencing the antiques and art auction market:
1. For most of 2008 the auction market was flooded with consignments because the leading phalanx of the Baby Boomer generation was aggressively downsizing. But by the end of the year the banking crisis had greatly affected the housing market; the sale of Boomer primary residences and vacation homes slowed. The contents of these residences that had been going to auction in volume, trickled to a virtual stop almost overnight. Caught off-guard, the Boomers watched helplessly as their assets spiraled downward with the economy.
Consequently, consignments to major auction venues began to wither. Pipelines that were glutted with personal property in the fourth quarter of 2008 were depleted by April 2009 as the market dramatically downshifted. Oddly, the shortage of product was accompanied by shrinking demand, an economic oxymoron. Typically, when supply is short demand is great, but the opposite was true by mid April 2009.
Good News: The economy is presently experiencing an upward bump (JUL 09), and so too, is the flow of consignments to the top auction venue pipelines. The questions are: Will this trend continue? And for how much longer before the anticipated sharp hike in interest rates and inflation come to pass? And will hammer prices be weak or strong? Time will tell.
2. Simultaneously, the boomers are managing the disposition of personal property in their elderly parent’s estates; it too, is often sold at auction.
3. As if these demographic factors were not enough to negatively affect the secondary market, there is also a fundamental change sweeping the marketplace throughout the developed nations: younger generations prefer other styles, or sadly, no style at all.
Consequently, prices realized at auction have appeared to have reached a plateau and may now actually be in decline except for all but the crème de’ le’ crème in most categories of personal property, especially antiques and art.
Quarterly Market Report: 2nd Qtr 2009
Antiques, art, and collectibles generally appreciate over time but the current world economic fiasco has given pause to even the deepest pockets. As a result, prices for personal property have been sliding downward for the past two quarters and will probably continue the descent. There are exceptions. The crème de la crème in every category remains strong and a fine piece with a credible historical provenance may even zoom past previous world auction records, but not surprisingly, the antiques and art market is overall tepid given the circumstances. Recommendation: If one can afford it, now’s the time to buy, or, if one can afford it, now’s the time not to sell.
Bright Spot
One collectible / art form worth mentioning that seems to be appreciating rapidly is portrait miniatures which are very small watercolors on ivory, vellum, or porcelain that can fit into one’s pocket; indeed, some are within lockets. Portrait miniatures have experienced increased demand in the marketplace in the last two years due to scholarly the efforts of multiple enthusiasts in tandem with savvy marketing. Look for continued rapid appreciation even in this stagnate market with each new book on the topic.
Dark Spot
Presently, the first $3.5 million of an individual’s bequest and $7 million of a couple’s bequest are exempted. Current law provides for the estate tax to be repealed for fiscal year 2010, from 1 OCT 09 to 30 SEP 10. If Congress fails to act, estate taxes in fiscal 2011 would revert back to levels that existed before the Bush administration. The exemptions would relapse to $1 million and the top rate would be elevated from 45% to 55%. Many farms, ranches, and family owned businesses would necessarily be dissolved. Mega conglomerates would likely swoop in and pick through the wreckage. Farm and ranch hands and short order cooks might be put out of work; and that would be a shame. The big boys are already big enough.
Wet Spot
Apparently the economy is affecting the collectible wine market, too. In a recent article written by Leslie Gevirtz, a wine topic writer for Reuters and holder of an advanced certificate from the International Wine Institute, she discusses current market trends regarding wines of the better sort. Gevirtz reports that even billionaire collectors are making adjustments. In one recent auction U.S. billionaire Warren Stephens sold 5000 bottles from his private collection for $4 million. Much of the movement seems to be toward the European and Asian markets due to the weak dollar. Read more about this market trend by clicking on the article link above.
ArtPrice’s Quarterly Art Market Report: The Ailing Art Market